Four years ago, I confess, I voted for Romney in the New
York primary, figuring he was by that point the biggest obstacle to throw at
the even-worse John McCain. Raising my
standards considerably, today I’ll vote against Romney, regardless of how big
an obstacle Ron Paul offers.
Philosophically, he is the only giant in electoral politics these
days.
Still, as I type this, prior to the day’s voting, it’s worth
noting that at this point either
Gingrich or Paul, to become the nominee without bizarre convention high-jinx,
would have to win nearly all the remaining
delegates, solo. Romney, by contrast,
automatically gets the nomination just by winning about 40% of the outstanding
delegates, which he can likely do with ease.
There is still a small chance of Romney failing to get to 1,144 before the convention. But there is now effectively no chance of Gingrich or Paul getting that
many before the convention.
It is hard, too, to imagine anyone but Romney emerging
victorious even from the ugliest and weirdest imaginable divided convention (so
I would prefer my fellow Ron Paul supporters not do anything nuts if it comes
to that).
And so, even though there is something to be said for
continuing to get Paul’s vote totals as high as possible to help spread the
liberty message, libertarians should probably be asking themselves what their
next move is in an Obama-vs.-Romney world: (1) Vote Romney? (2) Vote Obama? (3) Vote for the Libertarian Party candidate
all but certain to be picked at their convention in Vegas next week, Gary
Johnson? (4) Stay home? (5) Stick with Paul and expect something
very, very improbable to happen at the GOP convention (like Romney getting run
over by a bus)?
I would love to hear
from one experienced public speaker from each of these factions – who is a
libertarian – at the impending May 17 Dionysium event I’m hosting. Let me know if you’re game. No Devil’s-advocate stuff – I want to hear
five passionate cases made (for about five minutes each, in addition to our
main event: Brian Doherty discussing his new book on Ron Paul).
As for me, I suggest option #3 above, Gary Johnson (“Johnson if not Paul,” as I’ve vowed and encouraged others to vow). I
might in theory stretch that rule to include Rand Paul as a v.p. candidate, but
no other Republican, Rubio or otherwise, will do as a substitute for Ron. That is one of many complex and contentious issues
we’ll have to discuss on May 17, though, at the first gathering of the Dionysium!
It may sound like mere fantasy to think Romney might pick
Rand Paul as a running mate, but Romney’s going to have to cut several deals if he really wants to keep
his coalition together: socially conservative Santorumites, Hispanic and
Floridian Rubio-admirers, disappointed libertarian Ron Paul fans, and
more-conventional yet less-Republican libertarian Gary Johnson fans are all
liable to bail on poor Mitt, and he has to be doing that strange math by
now.
He will almost certainly prevail in New York today, though –
and rather than be a mopey and disappointed libertarian, I’ll just (1) spend
some individualistic time reading Superman:
Secrets of the Fortress of Solitude when that comes out tomorrow, (2) hear
Objectivist Yaron Brook speak at NYU Thursday night at 6pm with a few of my
anarcho-capitalist brethren, (3) attend a Victorian/steampunk fashion show in
Brooklyn on Sunday at 3pm, and (4) hear a neoconservatively-inclined rocker,
Jessica Eisenberg, perform at 8pm that same day at Cameo Gallery in
Williamsburg –the same neighborhood soon to know the glory of the Dionysium.
And I will really keep my cyber-mouth shut until May, hard
as that is to believe. Taking a page
from one of my state’s beloved former senators, I will try to emerge in
“listening tour” mode instead of arguing constantly – the very model of a
gracious Dionysium host.
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